With the DJIA having bounced a nice, neat 1,000 points off the January 12, 2015 low, the question of the day is if we've seen the bottom of the recent correction - or - if the current rally is simply the traditional oversold bounce that tends to accompany meaningful declines.

Obviously it is nearly impossible to know the answer to this question. However, sometimes a good old fashioned debate can help one determine which team the odds seem to favor at this time. So this morning, I'd like to present my "on the one hand, and yet on the other" view of the recent stock market action.

On the One Hand...

Let's start with the good news. It is positive that the bulls were finally able to put on a good show on Friday. And it's a plus that Friday's launch party occurred after several days of "waffling." The glass is half full gang tells us that this means last week's action can be seen as "base building."

It is also a modest positive that stocks did not immediately reverse course on Monday - especially after the weak open. You see, instead of flushing lower and giving up a big slug of Friday's gains, the bulls appeared to be able to hold the line on Monday.

Next, don't look now fans, but the situation with oil may be improving. Well, the "situation" as it relates to the U.S. stock market anyway.

By now everybody knows that stock prices have been tied to oil for quite some time now. However, on Monday oil went down - a lot - and stocks, well, they didn't follow suit. So, while one day does not a trend make (unless you can trade in milliseconds, of course), one can argue that the correlation trade may ...

Here we go again. Just when the bears thought that this time would be different, the global central bankers decided that it was time to hop back up on their white horses. It never gets old, does it?

In an ...

I've been getting a lot of questions lately as to whether or not we are seeing the beginning of a bear market. Given that the S&P is down -8.2% year to date and that the mere thought of the last ...

One of the hallmarks of stock market declines seen in what we call the "QE Era" has been the "V-Bottom." If one looks back at the declines seen since 2010, the vast majority of the corrections have traced out a ...

Over the years I've learned that it is usually not a good idea to read too much into any single session of Ms. Market's game. In other words, rarely does a single day make - or break - a trend. ...

Well that was interesting. One minute the sky was falling with the Dow down more than 550 points and the S&P 500 having broken an important line in the sand. And the next, well, pundits were falling all over themselves ...

Good morning. While there isn't always a "message" to be gleaned from the stock market action, there are times when you can get a hint about what is happening in Ms. Market's game by studying how and why things unfold ...

Good morning. With the S&P 500 down 8.0% on the year, it is safe to say that 2016 isn't off to a great start so far (for those keeping score at home, this has been the worst start to a ...

Good morning. Let me cut right to the chase this morning by saying that unless the bulls can get their act together and produce some buying that is driven by more than algorithmic-induced trend-following and/or short-covering, is prompted by more ...

Good morning. The bad news is that China's Shanghai and Shenzen market indices fell more than 2% overnight (Shanghai -2.41%, Shenzen -3.47%). The good news is that European and U.S. markets don't seem to care.

Based on the action in ...

Good morning. Now that we all know what the focal points of this market are, namely the yuan, China's stock market, and oil, it is probably a good idea to start off this fine Tuesday morning with a review of ...

Good morning. By now, you are probably already aware that the stock market has gotten off to the worst start of any year in history. So much for the favorable seasonality. So much for the asset allocation work that typically ...