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As a reminder, the market's primary cycles generally do not change often. However, I still like to start each week with a clear understanding of what type of market we are dealing with. For me, a quick glance at the color of the Primary Cycle board and the weekly/monthly S&P graphs below tells me an awful lot about the "state" of the key market cycles.

My Current Take...

There are no changes to the Primary Cycle board this week. And with the board predominately green it is easy to argue that the bulls are large and in charge. But my biggest question/concern from a big-picture point of view is if the bullish argument is getting a little "too easy" to make these days!

View the Primary Cycle Model Board Online
* Source: Ned Davis Research (NDR) as of the date of publication. Historical returns are hypothetical average annual performances calculated by NDR. Past performances do not guarantee future results or profitability - NOT INDIVIDUAL INVESTMENT ADVICE.

Checking In On The "Primary" Cycles

While I don't often make portfolio adjustments based on the long-term trends in the stock market (aka the "primary cycles"), I have found over the years that checking in on state of the cycles and the weekly/monthly charts helps to keep the big-picture in perspective.

View the Primary Cycles Board Online
* Source: Ned Davis Research (NDR) as of the date of publication. Historical returns are hypothetical average annual performances calculated by NDR. Past performances do not guarantee future results or profitability - NOT INDIVIDUAL INVESTMENT ADVICE.

The Secular Market Cycle

Definition: A secular bull market is a period in which stock prices rise at an ...

The State of the Markets:

Good Tuesday morning and welcome back. Last week, I took a just-for-fun stab at modeling expectations for what calendar year 2020 might look like in the U.S. stock market. And since stocks seem to only ...

Happy Monday and welcome back to the land of blinking screens. I don't know about you, but I've become intrigued lately with all the projections/prognostications that analysts feel compelled to provide at the beginning of each year. So, just for ...

It was a very busy week/weekend as I first attended NAAIM's (National Association of Active Investment Managers) annual conference. The conference was stellar, and it was great to hang out with so many like-minded investment professionals Sunday through Wednesday.

I ...

I'm not sure who I borrowed the title of this week's missive from, but I think we all have to admit that this is probably the best recession/slowdown ever!

Instead of the economy flirting with negative growth in the first ...

We've been talking lately about the idea that big hedge funds and systematic traders have been caught on the wrong side of the stock market's recent run for the roses. The thinking is this fact alone could account for the ...

Well it's official. As of Friday's close (a close that was likely influenced by the quad-witching event and a handful of S&P index rebalances), the S&P 500 is now up +20.05% from the 12/24/18 panic low. Wow talk about a ...

The fact that stocks pulled back a bit last week shouldn't have come as a surprise to anyone. The S&P 500 had enjoyed an historic joyride to the upside in a very short period of time. As in +19.2% in ...

It is said that a picture is worth a thousand words. So, this week, I've decided to try and sum up the keys to the current market environment with a series of charts and graphs. I started out looking for ...

It was a busy weekend of birthday celebrations (we had 2) and important family events in my household (our youngest is moving into her first apartment!) and as such, I didn't take the opportunity to spend a couple hours of ...

The joyride to the upside in the stock market continued last week as the S&P 500 surged another 2.5%. If my calculator is correct, this means the venerable blue-chip index is now up 10.7% so far in 2019 and has ...

On Tuesday, February 5 and again on Wednesday, February 6, the S&P 500 bumped into its 200-day moving average. While I'm not exactly sure why this particular indicator captures the attention of so many (there are a myriad of more ...