Morning Comment: Suckers.....TRAN.....Trump sets the


  • Don’t follow the suckers. In other words, don’t buy the mega-cap tech stocks up at these levels. They’re now ripe for a powerful decline.
  • The Transports have played catch-up quite nicely, but they’re getting overbought on a near-term basis.
  • Love him or hate him, you have to admit that Donald Trump in the one who sets the political narrative today


The rally only gets more and more narrow

It was a very quiet day in the markets yesterday. The volume actually the highest volume in 2.5 weeks...but that was only due to some month-end window dressing at the very end of the day. At 3:45 yesterday afternoon, we were on pace for the lowest volume day of the year...so there must have been some sort of month-end program. (The changes in the DJIA should not have had an impact.).....If there was one thing that was interesting, it was the breadth on the Nasdaq Composite index was negative...even though the Nasdaq rallied 1%. This kind of negative breadth on a positive day for the Nasdaq is becoming commonplace recently, but when it comes when the index rallies 1% or more, it definitely raises some serious concerns. (Wouldn’t it be nice if this narrow market actually had a whopping 50 names rallying strongly instead of less than 10? In other words, this rally is a lot more narrow than the “Nifty 50” rally of the early 1970s.

Of course, the Fed should be able to prevent the kind of bear market that took place after the “Nifty 50” bull market ran its course in the 1970s, but to quote Judge Smails in Caddy Shack, the “internals” for this rally still “sssssssssssssuck”...even worse than they did back then. We won’t bore you by regurgitating the details of overbought condition of many of these ...

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Morning Comment:


When I was in high school, the only sport that had a very early “pre-season” was football. (Some people called it “double sessions”...we called it “hell week.”) The other sports started before school got going as well, but not as ...

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THE WEEKLY TOP 10



THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Table of Contents:

1) We were wrong about August, but that does not deter our caution about September.

2) Chairman Powell’s comments last week were expected. Kaplan’s comments were quite telling.

3) An extended narrow rally ...

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THE WEEKLY TOP 10

THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Table of Contents:

1) Don’t party likes it’s 1999.

2 & 2a) Narrow rallies are not healthy rallies (so it IS something to worry about).

3) The dollar has much further to bounce.

4) Higher dollar ...

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Morning Comment: Bearish on Commodities, NEAR-TERM


It was a very uneventful day in the stock market yesterday...until late in the afternoon when the market gave back its earlier gains. The catalyst seemed to be comments from the “Fed Minutes” from their last meeting...which said the healthcare ...

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Morning Comment: Pounding the table about a near-term dollar bounce

Balloons, confetti, noisemakers, etc......No, we’re not talking about the Democratic National Convention. We talking about how the S&P 500 finally closed above the February closing highs yesterday...after bumping up against that level for over a week! Of course, there is ...

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Morning Comment: The Dollar Stands at a Key Technical Juncture

There is no question that the stock market continues to act will, but there is also no question that investor enthusiasm is waning as we approach the an all-time high in the S&P 500 Index. This lack of enthusiasm could ...

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THE WEEKLY TOP 10



We think it’s important to remind people from time to time that we always try to highlight issues from both sides of the bull/bear ledger each weekend. Therefore, some of our comments sometimes conflict with one another. However, we always ...

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Morning Comment: Congress won't care until the stock market starts to care.



The S&P did not quite close at an all time high yesterday, but it came about as close as it could without reaching that level on a closing basis...as it missed by only 5 points. In other words, the fact ...

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Morning Comment: Sharp short-term are not always fundamentally based.


We think that the action in the gold market yesterday...and the reasons being given for that move this morning...is a classic example of how Wall Street (stupidly) tries to give a fundamental reason for EVERY SINGLE move in the markets...even ...

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Morning Comment: Gold has become ripe for a short-term pull-back.


It was another low-volume/uneventful day yesterday...until about 2:30, when the stock market rallied strongly over the last hour and half. When you combine the 12 point gain in the S&P 500 this morning with the 20 point gain the futures ...

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Morning Comment: Narrow market...does it matter?


We had another nice day in the stock market yesterday as the tech sector continued to lead the way higher. It does not seem to matter that the rally is a very narrow one, but history tells us that it ...

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