Morning Comment: One Day Does Not Make a Trend....S. Korea....Gold.



The S&P 500 Index fell 1.48% yesterday...and in the 21st century, there have only been three other years where the first day of trading gave us a decline of more than 1%. Those years were 2001, 2008, 2015. The average return in those previous three years for the S&P 500 index was a loss of 17.42%. 2008 gave us a loss of 38.5%, 2001 saw a loss of 13%, and in 2015 the SPX fell 0.73%. Therefore, the best we can hope for in 2021 is a flat stock market...and the odds that the market will end the year in bear market territory are quite high.

Of course, that last statement is utterly ridiculous, but since January is such a big month for market trivia, we thought we’d have some fun by highlighting a little trivia ourselves..........We will also highlight that 2008 was that last year that Tom Brady did not play for the Patriots (due to an injury). A coincidence? We think not.

Seriously though, yesterday was a rough day for the stock market, but we are a long way from raising a big yellow warning flag on the market. Volume was quite strong...with the composite volume at almost 3.5bn shares. That was much higher than any trading day in January of 2020...except for the last day of the month. We’d also note that breadth was pretty negative...at more than 5 to 1 negative for the S&P 500. Having said this, the S&P was able to retrace 40% of its midday losses by the close. Also, the breadth at the midday lows was more than 10 to 1 negative, so it improved very nicely in the afternoon.

In other words, there were certainly a few things to be concerned about in terms of yesterday’s action, but we’re going to ...

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Morning Comment: Bring on the trivia!


Welcome to January...which is “trivia month.” That’s right, after the first day of trading...the third day of trading...the first week of trading...and the first month of trading...of every new year, we hear all sorts of trivia about what the action ...

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THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Since we are constantly getting new readers, we like to start our weekend piece with a quick note every once in a while...and the first piece of the year would seem to be a good time to do this once ...

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Morning Comment: It's (still) All About Liquidity


We have been out for several days due to the holiday, so although we have certainly kept an eye on the markets over the past week, we don’t have our fingers on the pulse of the markets to the degree ...

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THE WEEKLY TOP 10.....2021 Preview


Two quick notes: First, due to the holiday, we will not be sending out a weekend piece next weekend. Second, this weekend’s piece deals with our macro outlook at next year. Thus we talk about our view on the broad ...

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Morning Comment: Chip Stocks Starting to Get Quite Overbought


We have been quite positive on the chip stocks for a while now...and we turned particularly bullish on the group three months ago, in early September. Back then we said that although it was a good idea to pare-back on ...

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THE WEEKLY TOP 10



THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Table of Contents:

1) The stock market: Bullish near-term, cautious for 2021.

2) Many global stock markets look great near-term as well.

3) One concern is that sentiment is starting to get quite bullish.

4) A ...

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Morning Comment: Is The Trend For Long-Term Interest Rates About To Change?


With this morning’s employment report, this morning is a perfect time to update the chart on the yield U.S. 10-year Treasury note. Some of this will be merely be a review of things we’ve highlighted in the past, but given ...

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Morning Comment: The stock market rally is a global one!



Well, we got off to a great start to December in the stock market with a better than 1% rally in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices, but we have to admit that it came on lower volume than we ...

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Morning Comment: Gold & copper poised to diverge...in the other direction.


Well the last two weeks have played out very much like we thought they would. Two weeks ago, we got a “breather” in the market place...which allowed the market to work-off some of the overbought condition that had built up ...

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THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Quick note: With the Thanksgiving holiday this upcoming week, things should be pretty quiet. By midday on Tuesday, the activity in the marketplace will slow down considerably and thus the moves in the market will not be very compelling. They’ll ...

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Morning Comment: Gold Testing Important Support.

For the first time since the Roosevelt Administration, the stock market fell for the second day in a row yesterday. (Ok, that is a LITTLE bit of an exaggeration, but it sure seems like we haven’t had two down days ...

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