Morning Comment: Will the U.S. Follow Europe?


WHAT AN UNBELIEVABLE DAY YESTERDAY!!!!! Tom Brady decided to leave the Patriots!!!!.......Oh yeah…the stock market rallied 6% too after a large fiscal plan was proposed….BUT TOM BRADY LEFT THE PATRIOTS!!!!!

Of course, SOME people will try to say that the market rallied strongly yesterday because the Trump Administration proposed some bazooka-style fiscal plans…and due to the report that the Fed is going to reinstate their commercial paper facility. However, anybody who really understands how the markets work…OBVIOUSLY knows that the real reason the stock market rallied so strongly was because people outside New England became MUCH more positive on their own personal future…now that the Patriots no longer have Tom Brady!!!! That’s right! Teams outside of New England finally have a chance of winning the Super Bowl. Therefore, people said to themselves, “Yes, there IS a God”…and they started buying stocks aggressively!!!

Ok, we’re sorry…..but in times like these, we think it’s important to add a little humor from time to time. This is especially true given how bad things have become in Europe. We’ve talked a lot about how the next support level on the charts for the U.S. stock market is the late 2018 lows (of 2350 on the S&P 500 index). However in Europe, the STOXX Europe 600 index has not only ALREADY fallen below its 2018 lows, it has ALSO dropped below its 2016 lows!!! If the S&P is going to do the same thing, the stock market has another 30% drop from last night’s close over the coming weeks…..That’s not a prediction, but a lot of people are saying that the U.S. is 2-3 weeks behind Italy in terms of the coronavirus. So a test (and break) of the 2016 lows is not out of the question (eventually) in ...

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Morning Comment: Panic At Your Own Risk


  • Are “the authorities” causing a panic?
  • The reaction is so much different that it was after 9/11.
  • Despite turning bearish earlier than most, we’re actually not as bearish as a lot of people this morning.
  • Signs of capitulation and ...
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Exxon (XOM): Incredibly Oversold


A very smart person we know told us he bought XOM yesterday. He did not follow that up by trying to sell us on this fact, so he was not “talking his book.” He simply stated the fact that ...

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Morning Comment: More Than a 1-Day Bounce This Time?


In our Morning Comment yesterday morning, we highlighted several signs of capitulation that we were observing. We also said that although a near-term bottom might not come immediately (Thursday), we did expect one to begin very, very soon. Well, we ...

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Morning Comment: The Stock Markets Reacting the Way it Should


The news that the Trump administration was going to come forward with a fiscal stimulus plan that includes a payroll tax cut (and maybe even some relief for the energy industry) helped the stock market (which had become quite oversold ...

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Morning Comment: It's About the Credit Markets Now.



Well, we just got a true shock to the stock market. As we said over the weekend, stock investors had several weeks to react to the outbreak of the coronavirus. The moves in other asset prices (like gold and especially ...

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Thursday midday Comment: Short-Term Support/Resistance



The S&P 500 Index is trying to hold its 200 DMA (which is just above 3050). To be honest, the 200 DMA didn’t provide much support in last week’s late-week decline…and didn’t provide a lot of resistance on the days ...

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Morning Comment: Credit Spreads Are Still Raising Concerns


  • Nice “Biden rally,” but a short squeeze provided A LOT of fuel as well.
  • Despite the rally in stocks, Treasury yields and gold prices did not respond in-kind.
  • We also did not see much of a tightening of credit ...
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Midday Comment (very quick)


Our call for a sharp short-term bounce has worked-out very well so far. The S&P now stands a full 6% above its intraday lows from Friday! However, when it got up to its 200 DMA today, the S&P stalled-out. Therefore ...

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Morning Comment: Ripe for a SHORT-TERM Bounce Soon

The futures have been trading all over the place since they opened last evening at 6:00pm. When we went to bed last night, they have been down by more than 1%...then they flipped to the upside overnight and ...

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THE WEEKLY TOP 10



THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Table of Contents:

1) A recession will mean another credit crisis…even if its smaller than the last one.

2) Victory lap! Also, if you read our work regularly, we hope you will support us.

3) We ...

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Morning Comment: Keeping Your Head While Others are Losing Theirs



We definitely saw signs of capitulation yesterday…more than we saw on Tuesday. Not only was breadth similarly horrible (32 to 1 negative on the S&P 500 and 10 to 1 negative on the NYSE Composite Index), but we finally got ...

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