Morning Comment: Commodities getting ripe for a "breather."


It was definitely a good day for the stock market...as the S&P, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 all closed at record all-time highs. We must say that the “internals” of the market weren’t all that great. The breadth for the S&P 500 was 3.4 to 1 positive...and it was just 3 to 1 positive for the Nasdaq Composite & NYSE Composite indexes. Again, those are not horrible numbers, but you’d like to see something above 5 to 1 positive on a day when the market was up more than 1%.

HAVING SAID THIS, the “internals” were better than they were on a couple of other days this week...and the S&P Equal Weight index rallied just as much as the S&P did yesterday (after lagging on several days earlier in the week). That equal weight index did not make a new record high like the S&P 500 did, but it’s less than 1% below its January all-time highs, so there is not a big divergence right now...and thus it’s not something that is raising a yellow flag.

This is a long-winded way of saying that this week’s rally in the stock market has been a good one, BUT that the less-than-stellar “internals” is telling us that the upside follow-through could be limited as we move through the rest of February. In other words, the stock market has simply retraced the losses that took place during the GME (et el) short squeeze that created a mini de-leveraging process the previous week. Therefore, it is not a lock that the stock market is going to see more upside follow-through.

Let’s face it, it’s great that earnings are going to be a lot better than they were in 2020...and that we’re seeing some signs of better economic growth than last year. However, since 2020 ...

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Morning Comment: Amazon (AMZN) is at a key technical juncture


Our call that the short-term rally in silver would not last very long at all...and our call that the heavily “squeezed” stocks that had rallied so strongly recently...were very vulnerable to a big decline...worked-out quite well yesterday. Silver basically gave-back ...

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Morning Comment: Is the "short silver" story part of a "pump & dump" scheme?


We must admit, we just don’t see the big short position in the silver market. Maybe it’s out there...and we just can’t see it. However, when we look at the Commitment of Traders (COT) data, it shows that the net ...

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THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Just a reminder, we are only putting out one “version” each weekend now. The first paragraph will be in bold letters and will serve as the old “Short Version” of the piece (usually a condensed review of the “Long Version.”) ...

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Morning Comment: Wall Street still doesn't "get it" when it comes to the GameStop phenomenon



As we moved through the day yesterday, we couldn’t help asking ourselves whether Melvin Capital...the hedge fund that received a $3bn bailout this week...will end up being like the Bear Sterns hedge funds of 2007? Long before Bear Sterns (the ...

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Morning Comment: Be prepared IN ADVANCE...the signs are all over the place!


There are a lot of things going on today, so we have many candidates for a catalyst for a big move in the stock market over the rest of this week. The futures are trading significantly lower in pre-market trading, ...

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Morning Comment: The REAL Reason Why GameStop's Action Should be a Concern



Everybody has been talking about GameStop (GME) in recent days...which makes total sense given that the stock had rallied over 3,000% from its August level...and it has done this even though its prospects are worse than anything Judge Smells would ...

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Morning Comment: Bitcoin should be a good indicator for the stock market near-term.



The funny thing about Bitcoin right now is that people either want to read or hear everything they can about the asset...or they’re sick and tired of everybody talking about it. (The latter group tends to be the ones who ...

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Morning Comment: Charts on NFLX, GS, and UPS.


As expected, the market reacted well to Janet Yellen’s confirmation testimony yesterday...and the ensuing bounce led to a 50% retracement of last week’s losses in just one day. The rally came on pretty mediocre “internals”...as the volume was nothing special ...

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Morning Comment: Chip stocks: Great run, but they're getting very overbought near-term.


We find it comical that some pundits think that since a couple of Fed members have come out to say that the Fed is unlikely to cut back on their QE program any time soon, it means that we should ...

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Morning Comment: The Next Two Weeks Could Be Key For Bitcoin


The stock market took it on the chin a little bit yesterday, but it came on breadth that was basically flat for the S&P 500, the Nasdaq Composite and the NYSE Composite indexes. It also came low volume of less ...

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Morning Comment: What if the dollar actually rallies for a while?


There is no question in our minds that what those people did when they took over the capital building this week was appalling...and disgraceful. However, what in the world would have happened if they had been terrorists? Sure the Capital ...

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