Morning Comment: Small-caps, Biotechs testing KEY support levels


If history is any guide the market tends to rally at the end of the quarter…as institutional investors mark-up their favorite picks. Thus, with only two days left in the first quarter, maybe it should be no surprise that the market is holding up pretty well in the face of the Archegos debacle.

(Don’t listen to those people who keep saying that the stock market “should” see a sell-off at the end of a quarter. They say this will happen because of higher interest rates…and thus some institutional investors will have to reweight their holdings by selling stocks & buying bonds at the end of the quarter. It sounds good theoretically, but since long-term rates bottomed & started rising a year ago, the market has only sold-off once over the last five days of trading. In fact, the average return of the past 4 quarter-end examples has been a GAIN of 2.5% for the S&P 500 index.)

Of course, there are plenty of reasons why the market could still fall by tomorrow’s close. On top of the Archegos situation, we have rising Covid cases around the world…and a rise in long-term interest rates to their highest levels for this move. However, “quarter-end” factors tend to be bullish, not bearish.

Anyway, most of the stock market held up very well yesterday in the face of all news surrounding the reported losses at Archegos, Credit Suisse, Nomura, etc. We worry that this type of action in the face of a bearish development is a sign of a very high level of complacency in the markets…but we have to admit that could actually mean that the markets and economy are strong enough to hold-up under these conditions.

As you might gather from our recent comments, we think it’s the former rather than the ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment: Several Overseas Markets Showing Some Cracks.


The Treasury market rallied very nicely yesterday, and this obviously led to a rather material drop in long-term interest rates. However, instead of that causing a nice bounce in the stock market, stocks got hit quite hard. In our minds, ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment: Banks Ripe for a Short-term Pull-back.

In our weekend piece this past weekend, we highlighted that although we expect long-term rates to head higher over time, we also think that they are ripe for a pull-back over the short-term. We showed how the chart on the ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment: WAKE UP, the FED has become more hawkish!



Despite the consensus narrative after the Fed announcement/press conference yesterday, we would argue that the one thing that everybody is missing is that the Fed keeps confirming lately that it has changed its policy...and has become more hawkish. ...

Read More
Comments

Midday Comment: Nasdaq approaching the "neck-line" of an "H&S" pattern


This is a note I posted today late in the morning. If you would like to get posts like these on a more timely basis...as well as receive my daily comments and "The Weekly Top 10" piece, please join us ...

Read More
Comments

Midday Comment: Nasdaq approaching the "neck-line" of an "H&S pattern


This is a note I posted today late in the morning. If you would like to get posts like these on a more timely basis...as well as receive my daily comments and "The Weekly Top 10" piece, please join us ...

Read More
Comments

THE WEEKLY TOP 10


If you would like to get these unique insights on a regular basis during these fascinating times in the investment world, please click here to subscribe to “The Maley Report.”......Thank you very much.



THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Table of Contents: ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment: A willingness to let inflation


It was an ugly day in the stock market yesterday as the 2.4% drop in the S&P 500 and the 3.5% dive in the Nasdaq came on a decent sized increase in volume and very poor breadth. In fact, the ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment: Travel & leisure stocks getting overbought near-term.


As we highlighted yesterday morning, large intraday-reversals (like the kind we got on Tuesday) almost always see some sort of upside follow-through over the very-short-term. That is exactly what we got yesterday...as some more dovish comments from Chairman Powell helped ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment: Powell Testimony.....TSLA & Bitcoin at key technical junctures.


We had a widely divergent market yesterday...as some groups rallied strongly as others got hit hard. In other words, the rotation that we’ve seen in the stock market in recent months was on steroids yesterday. Therefore, even though the S&P ...

Read More
Comments

THE WEEKLY TOP 10


I hope you have been enjoying the “Morning Comment” and “The Weekly Top 10”.....We will be ending our extended free trial of the newsletter on March 1st, so if you want to continue to get these unique insights during these ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment: They're running out of stocks to short.


Uneventful days have been few and far between over the last several months in the stock market (and for the last year for that matter), but we’ve had several of them recently. Yesterday was another one of those days...as the ...

Read More
Comments