THE WEEKLY TOP 10

THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Table of Contents:

1) Don’t party likes it’s 1999.

2 & 2a) Narrow rallies are not healthy rallies (so it IS something to worry about).

3) The dollar has much further to bounce.

4) Higher dollar = more headwinds for several VERY overbought commodities.

4a) Lumber is the most overbought it has EVER been.

5) TSM seeing some cracks...and NVDA is very overbought. Not good for the SMH.

6) Nobody cares, but another lock-down this fall/winter is highly likely.

7) Consumer discretionary stocks are getting quite overbought. Several “staples” look better.

8) We’ll keep saying it: The U.S. cannot let China gain control of Taiwan.

9) How ironic would it be if the stock market fell during the week of the GOP convention?

10) Summary of our current stance.


Short Version:

1) We have become more constructive on the stock market on a longer-term basis, but we do not see a rally above 3,600 by year-end. Also, we remain quite cautious on the shorter-term...and last week’s action merely emboldened that opinion. The stock market has become more expensive, more overbought...and, certain aspects of the stock market remind us of 1999/2000. The upcoming near-term top will see obvious in retrospect, but since too many people are making money right now (on both sides of the street)...nobody will say anything about the emperor.

2 & 2a) The “internals” during last week’s advance in the S&P 500 & Nasdaq we very, very poor. (Don’t listen to those who say that “narrow” rallies are nothing to worry about.)....Whether it be the shrinking number of stocks hitting 52 week highs, the lagging A/D line, the lagging Russell 2000 & S&P 500 equal weight indexes...this situation has only deteriorated. We’d also note that sentiment in the II data shows the spread ...

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Morning Comment: Bearish on Commodities, NEAR-TERM


It was a very uneventful day in the stock market yesterday...until late in the afternoon when the market gave back its earlier gains. The catalyst seemed to be comments from the “Fed Minutes” from their last meeting...which said the healthcare ...

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Morning Comment: Pounding the table about a near-term dollar bounce

Balloons, confetti, noisemakers, etc......No, we’re not talking about the Democratic National Convention. We talking about how the S&P 500 finally closed above the February closing highs yesterday...after bumping up against that level for over a week! Of course, there is ...

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Morning Comment: The Dollar Stands at a Key Technical Juncture

There is no question that the stock market continues to act will, but there is also no question that investor enthusiasm is waning as we approach the an all-time high in the S&P 500 Index. This lack of enthusiasm could ...

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THE WEEKLY TOP 10



We think it’s important to remind people from time to time that we always try to highlight issues from both sides of the bull/bear ledger each weekend. Therefore, some of our comments sometimes conflict with one another. However, we always ...

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Morning Comment: Congress won't care until the stock market starts to care.



The S&P did not quite close at an all time high yesterday, but it came about as close as it could without reaching that level on a closing basis...as it missed by only 5 points. In other words, the fact ...

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Morning Comment: Sharp short-term are not always fundamentally based.


We think that the action in the gold market yesterday...and the reasons being given for that move this morning...is a classic example of how Wall Street (stupidly) tries to give a fundamental reason for EVERY SINGLE move in the markets...even ...

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Morning Comment: Gold has become ripe for a short-term pull-back.


It was another low-volume/uneventful day yesterday...until about 2:30, when the stock market rallied strongly over the last hour and half. When you combine the 12 point gain in the S&P 500 this morning with the 20 point gain the futures ...

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Morning Comment: Narrow market...does it matter?


We had another nice day in the stock market yesterday as the tech sector continued to lead the way higher. It does not seem to matter that the rally is a very narrow one, but history tells us that it ...

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Morning Comment: Biggest Near-Term Risk? China.

There is no question that there are a lot of developments from around the globe that are fighting for the attention of the public (and investors) in the mainstream media. Whether it be the continuing Covid-19 crisis, the debate over ...

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THE WEEKLY TOP 10....The risk/reward equation has changed significantly



THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Table of Contents:

1) Is all of the good news already priced into the mega-cap techs over the near-term?

2) Some of the obvious froth in the market place is becoming ridiculous.

3) High yield is ...

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Morning Comment: An August Pull-Back Would Actually Be Healthy


It’s the last day of July and it seems like we’re setting up for an exciting August. In other words, those who are looking for the dog days of summer this year are going to be sorely disappointed. On the ...

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