THE WEEKY TOP 10


THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Table of Contents:

1) The market acts great, but it’s also getting expensive, overbought and over-loved.

2) The key tech ETFs…& several key tech stocks…are beginning to show some cracks.

3) Ditto for the high yield market…especially at the bottom of the quality scale.

4) Having said this, a “melt-up” into year-end is not out of the question. It’s just not likely.

5) Another bullish development is the rise in copper…which is now testing key resistance.

6) Watch the XLY to see if the consumer will remain strong through the holiday season.

7) The biotechs are overbought near-term, but any further rally will be quite bullish.

8) The Fed’s most recent QE program began with very different market conditions than usual.

9) Crude oil rallies, but the energy stocks continue not to care.

10) Summary of our current stance.


Short Version:

1) The stock market acts great…and thus human nature leads a lot of people to believe it will continue to rally strongly. However, the stock market is becoming very overbought. More importantly, it is becoming very expensive…especially if you look at the most accurate reading: the price-to-sales ratio. Therefore we believe the stock market will have a very tough time rallying a lot further from current levels…and could/should see a pull-back soon…..Also, we continue to believe a willingness to stay nimble will be the key to success for investors in 2020.....To read more about this issue and to see the chart on the price-to-sales ratio, click here to subscribe to "The Maley Report" (TheMaleyReport.com).

2) The tech group has provided great leadership for the stock market all year. However, they’re starting to show some cracks on a technical basis. The XLK & SMH tech ETFs are coming off of overbought conditions…and their MACD charts are ...

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Comments

What the hell is going on with AMD today???


Although I frequently like to send out notes that give both sides of the bull/bear ledger on a given situation, I almost always take a definitive stance on which side of that ledger I stand at any that time. I ...

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Morning Comment: Nobody is Selling!!!


  • Never short a dull market...especially when nobody is selling.
  • However, can the next 6 weeks be anything like the past 6 weeks?
  • If it is, sell everything at the beginning of the New Year...because the market will be ridiculously overbought ...
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Morning Comment: Goldman Sachs (GS) testing KEY resistance


Despite the way it might have seemed, the stock market had really be trading in a relatively tight sideways range for the past two weeks...until Friday. Since the past two week had followed a very nice (6.6%) rally, Friday's nice ...

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The Weekly Top 10


THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Table of Contents:

1) The stock market has already priced-in a “Phase One” deal.

2) Earnings growth (and future estimates) do not justify this level in the stock market.

3) We’re seeing small (repeat, small) cracks ...

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Comments

Morning Comment: Trade deal already priced-in....AAPL due for a drop.


  • We're close to a trade deal....again.
  • Any deal will be a much smaller one than the one they were "close to" back in April...when the stock market was more than 5% lower.
  • Will Hong Kong cause a deal to fall ...
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Comments

Morning Comment: Phase One Deal Priced-in....AAPL Quite Overbought



In our opinion, both the U.S. and China want and need a “Phase One” trade deal…and thus one will be signed in the not-too-distant future. Not only do both side want and need one, but a significant break-down in the ...

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Morning Comment: 3 Industrial Stocks Looking to Make Big Moves


  • The XLI industrial stock ETF has broken key resistance, but it’s getting overbought near-term
  • GE is coming off of a VERY, VERY overbought level and looks ripe for a tradeable decline.
  • FDX is overbought near-term, but has a lot of ...
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Morning Comment: Energy Stocks Poised or a Powerful Breakout


The energy stocks have been lagging the market all year (until very recently)...and they are now poised to breakout in a powerful way if the energy stock ETF (the XLE & XOP) can break above the key resistance levels that ...

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Morning Comment...Micron (MU): The Stock Trader's Dream Stock!


  • MU is a stock trader's dream. It's liquid and it's never boring. It either rallies in a meaningful way...or declines in a significant way.
  • We're watching the 50 DMA on MU. Whichever way it "breaks" after testing that line should ...
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Morning Comment: 10yr Yield Right Back to Critical Level


China moves the goal posts (again).

There has been another change in the trade negotiations with China...as China is now asking for a scaling back of some existing tariffs as a prerequisite for signing the "Phase One" deal. We thought ...

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Morning Comment: Is a "Melt-up" Possible? (Answer: Yes.)

China has moved the goal posts on the "Phase One" trade deal...by asking for the U.S. to remove some of their existing tariffs. If President Trump caves-in to these demands, it will only prolong the "Economic Cold War" that now ...

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