Weekly Wrap-Up + Market Forecast + Sector Watch: SPX, Nasdaq, XRT, BTK, FAS, SOXX

It was a volatile week, but, the markets managed to push higher. Monday and Tuesday were strong, continuing from the rally inspired by BIDU and LNKD's earnings. However, we saw profit-taking on Tuesday afternoon that spilled into Wednesday and Thursday's trading, ahead of Friday's jobs report. The latest jobs numbers turned out to be really good, which renewed fear towards a December rate hike. But, late Friday morning, buyers started to return again. Both the Dow and Nasdaq ended Friday in the green. SPX closed down by less than a point!

Here are the closed trades for the week. Some of the highlights include intraday winners on MLM and VMC calls; PANW calls also did well:

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For the week, the Dow was up +246.79 points; SPX added +19.84 points; Nasdaq gained +93.37 points. Gold took a sharp fall, closing around $1090/ounce. Oil slid to trade just above $44/barrel. At the time of this writing, Asian markets were mostly higher. Here's how the US markets looked after Friday's close:


On Friday, SPX slipped to 2099.2, down less than 1 point. It stayed above its daily MAs, but, just below 2100. The MACD slid.


Nasdaq added +19.38 points to close at 5147.12. Its daily MAs went up, but, the MACD flattened.

Both indices stuttered after Tuesday's intraday high. We did see some profit-taking ahead of the jobs report. For the new week, with the holiday season fast-approaching, I think the markets will stay up, although some consolidation may continue to happen.

I was at the outlet malls and Costco this weekend, and they were packed with shoppers! Suddenly, it felt like the average consumer is shopping and buying again!

Earnings are slowing down. We do have PCLN on Monday before the market opens. There's also CSCO on Thursday afternoon. Financials had a strong showing on Friday, but, may need to rest for a bit. Biotechs will be interesting to watch as funds are shifting sectors. Semiconductors were very strong on Friday after SWKS and QRVO's reports.

SPX has resistance as 2130 and support at 2080.

Sector Watch

XRT (retail)

XRT closed above its daily MAs. I think this group is ready to rally higher. RL was a bigger winner last week. Can AMZN go higher!? I wonder if we will see it test $700 by the year's end. If American consumers are buying, are they buying in China? I think the answer is "Yes"! What about BABA? I think shorting BABA is a suicide. It should test $90 soon.

BTK (biotech)

Biotechs still affects the broader market quite a bit. BTK is still healthy, but, may need some time to consolidate. The big four (BIIB, CELG, AMGN, and GILD) are not looking so good. JAZZ is reporting on Monday after market.

FAS (financials)

FAS is also a bit toppy, near-term. GS had a strong week last week, as I had expected (see last week's Sector Watch).

SOXX (semiconductors)

SOXX has been consolidating. Friday's rally in this sector was very strong. QRVO and SWKS are not done going higher. BRCM and AVGO could be looking to breakout. These have been beaten down for a while and now people are rushing to buy back in. Also, watch AAPL!

Good night and HappyTrading! ™

Posted to Ecstatic Plays on Nov 09, 2015 — 2:11 AM
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