Very often, I capture how the market is going to move throughout the week with just one paragraph of description in my weekly Market Forecast. Last weekend was not an exception, in which I wrote:
"For the new week, we might see a bounce to test SPX 1975, or around there. Then, we will have to see if the markets can keep bouncing or fall back down. On the up side, SPX has resistance at 1975 to 1980. On the downside, we might see the market test 1910-1900."
On Monday, the market popped, and the SPX went up to test the 1975 to 1980 resistance. While the broader market advanced, biotechs were weak. I cautioned my members in the Chatroom:
"market still consolidating... Biotechs still on the weak side... [8:04 am (PST)]"
Sure enough, on Tuesday, stocks fell sharply. SPX went down to test 1930. Wednesday was a narrow-ranged, flat day. On Thursday, the market dropped again. This time, SPX tested 1910. But, buyers soon came in. The week ended with SPX at around 1930.
We did pretty well this week, although we did get out of some trades early, such as some of our SPY puts and CELG puts. Here are the closed trades for the week:
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For the week, the Dow was down 69.91 points; SPX fell 26.69 points; Nasdaq tumbled 140.73 points. Gold continued to rise, now trading above $1140/ounce. Oil was flat, staying around $45/barrel. At the time of this writing, Asian markets were lower. The coming week should be very interesting. Let's take a look at where things stood after last Friday's close:
On Friday, SPX slipped 0.9 point to close at 1931.34. Its daily MAs and MACD were little changed.
Nasdaq dropped 47.98 points to close at 4686.5. Its daily MAs and MACD went down.
Weeks ago, energy stocks hurt the SPX. This week the biotechs hurt Nasdaq. Nasdaq had been staying stronger than the broader market, but, last week's drop did some damage to Nasdaq. Both indices closed below their respective daily MAs. For the new week, we could see some bounces to start the week. Many biotech stocks are near-term oversold. Financials also seem to be establishing a base. However, SPX now has resistance at around 1950, and then 1975 to 1980. Nasdaq is now more vulnerable, but, a pop above 4800 could bring more buyers in.
Let's take a look at some major sectors.
FAS closed just below its daily MAs. But, as you can see the 10-day and 20-day MAs are flattening out. This sector is trying very hard to establish a base. Let's see if the big banks can bounce up from here.
FDN closed below its daily MAs. This makes this sector vulnerable. I will be watching GOOG, AMZN, PCLN, and FB very closely.
SOXX also closed below its daily MAs. Its daily MAs are bunching up. This makes things very interesting, as a big movement could be in the near future. I'm watching AVGO, NXPI, SWKS, and BRCM. MU is reporting on Thursday.
BTK took another tumble last week, and, it is basically revisiting the lows last month. AMGN, CELG, GILD, and BIIB all fell sharply.
Good night and HappyTrading! ™