Last weekend, in my Market Forecast, I wrote:
"For the new week, the market starts at a neutral position as the market consolidated on Friday. But, stocks may slip as the buying momentum wanes. Before the sharp drop, people were looking for a pullback. The pullback was so sharp that it brought most sectors into the correction territory in just a few days! Thus, the sharp bounce is warranted. Now, that the bounce has taken out the downside overshoot, we may see stocks slip again."
Indeed, the buying faded. Besides the bounce on Wednesday, there was not much buying. Tuesday brought a quick drop, sending the market down to test 1900. After Wednesday's bounce, selling resume on Thursday afternoon, and lingered into Friday.
We had a pretty good week keeping the Ecstatic Plays Portfolio near its all-time high, especially considering how volatile the markets were. Here are the closed trades for the week, which we had already highlighted some trades earlier (Click here to see the previous article):
For the week, the Dow was down 540.63 points; SPX fell 67.65 points; Nasdaq lost 144.4 points. Oil had a strong opening on Monday, but, pulled back throughout the week. Still, it managed to close higher for the week, at around $45/barrel (WTI). Gold slid down to about $1120/ounce. Asian markets were mostly lower on Monday, as the US markets were closed in observance of Labor Day. Tonight, at the time of this writing, Asian markets were mixed. Let's see how the US markets closed on Friday:
On Friday, SPX fell 29.91 points to close at 1921.22. It closed below its daily MAs. The MACD slid.
Nasdaq lost 49.58 points to close at 4683.92. It closed just below its 10-day MA. The MACD was slightly down.
Both SPX and Nasdaq closed below their respective daily MAs. For the new week, the major indices will start out in vulnerable positions. But, the selling has slowed. It's perhaps more difficult to find reasons to buy right now. People are already worrying about China. Now, people might even ponder on the effects of Syrian refugees migrating into Europe.
On Wednesday afternoon, we will get earnings from PANW. What's perhaps more influential is the Apple event on Wednesday. Besides some other major companies, LULU also reports on Thursday. We will have to see if the markets can find reason to buy.
On the down side, SPX has support at 1900, and then 1880. On the upside, 1950 seems to have become a resistance. Above that, 1970 to 1980 is another resistance.
Oil retreated on Monday and is drifting lower this evening. If oil stocks fall back again, we are probably going to see the markets pressured.
XLE fell back last week, but, managed to close above its 10-day MA. Its MACD moved higher. Most oil stocks are at neutral, at best. But, it the selling resumes, we could see them fall quickly down to test the recent lows.
FAS fell lower, nearing its recent lows again! Big banks are all weak. Even MA and V look weak.
FDN held up pretty well last week, considering how much the broader market fell back. NFLX is weak. AMZN, PCLN, and GOOG are holding up well. TWTR, LNKD, and YELP seems to be trying to find a base.
BTK closed pretty much right at its 10-day MA. Its MACD is flat. The selling has slowed in this sector as well. BIIB has been looking to bounce as analysts have called it oversold. AMGN, GILD, and CELG look weak, but, perhaps oversold. CLVS and HRTX are on the stronger side.
SOXX also managed to close above its 10-day MA. This sector has been selling since July. It is trying very hard to draw a base right now. I'll be keeping an eye on this sector.
Good night and HappyTrading! ™