Weekly Wrap-Up + Market Forecast + Sector Watch: SPX, Nasdaq, FAS, XLE, BTK, FDN, IGV

Stocks started on a weak note last week, falling nearly down to SPX 2070 by Tuesday morning. As I had stated before there is strong support between 2080 and 2070. Markets mainly followed the news coming out of Europe revolving around the negotiation on Greek debt and the release of its bailout funds. On Wednesday, stocks popped higher as there seemed to be some optimism in Greece reaching a deal with its creditors. On Thursday morning, SPX climbed back to 2115. Hope faded on Friday, as the negotiating parties parted without getting a deal done.

As I said last weekend, market indices were becoming more vulnerable. Wednesday's pop brought the indices back to neutral. But, Friday's drop put pressured on the major indices again!

However, through the volatility of the market, we did exceptionally well last week, giving the value of my Ecstatic Plays portfolio yet another jump! Our trades on NFLX, MBLY, and WBAI gave us some nice upside gains! Our VIX calls gave us nice protection on the downside. Here are the closed trades for the week:

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For the week, the Dow was up +49.36 points; SPX added +1.28 points; Nasdaq slid 17.36 points. Gold bounced higher to close above $1180/ounce. Oil (WTI) was basically unchanged, trading around $60/barrel. Asian markets were down at the time of this writing, as the latest proposal from Greece was rejected again! Let's see where the US markets stood after Friday's close:


On Friday, SPX fell 14.75 points to close at 2094.11. It closed below its daily MAs. Its MACD went down.


Nasdaq dropped 31.41 points to close at 5051.1. Its MACD was lower as well.

SPX now looks weak, closing below its daily MAs. Nasdaq is neutral with a bearish bias, as its MACD slid. For the new week, focus is still on Greece/EU. Also, on Wednesday, we will hear from the Fed, regarding interest rates. FDX reports on Wednesday morning, followed by ORCL in the afternoon.

Unless some good news from regarding Greek debt deal develops overnight, we will most likely see weakness to start the week. Financials have held up well so far. Biotechs have seen some weakness. Energies have been trying to establish a bottom, but, to no avail thus far. Software is staying strong ahead of ORCL's earnings.

Sector Watch

FAS (financial)

FAS tried to break out on Thursday last week, but, did not succeed. However, big banks and regional banks, alike, reached new heights. GS, JPM, WFC, BAC, PNC, and STI all pushed higher.

XLE (energy)

XLE got a nice pop on Wednesday with the broader market, but, could not muster any follow through. CVX and XOM are in danger for a new leg down. EOG, APA, APC, and SLB are barely holding neutral.

BTK (biotech)

BTK has sustained two quick selloffs in the recent months, one in late March and one in late May. It is looking vulnerably again. AMGN popped higher during the week, but, investors seemed to have used it as an opportunity to take more money off the table. GILD broke higher, and has been on a five-week run so far. CELG and BIIB are now looking neutral. ALXN has established a bottom. HRTX went through the roof, going from $12 to over $30 in just two weeks! ESPR got a big drop this week. LLY options have become very active. Again, if BTK breaks down, I think the broader market may be in trouble.

IGV (software)

IGV is holding in a neutral stance. ADBE reports on Tuesday afternoon; and then ORCL will deliver its results on Wednesday afternoon. CRM has slipped a bit, closing below its daily MAs. SPLK looks fairly interesting. But, overall, we will probably need to see some M&A activities in this group to wake things up.

FDN (internet)

FDN is looking a bit weak after Friday's close, as it closed barely above its 30-day MA. TWTR is still very weak. AMZN and FB are ok. NFLX should be interesting next week, as BABA revealed plans to launch streaming video service in two months. Internet companies are really heating up in China. BABA may be looking to buy smaller companies. Let's keep our eyes on SOHU, WB, WBAI, YOKU, and QIHU.

Good night and HappyTrading! ™

Posted to Ecstatic Plays on Jun 15, 2015 — 1:06 AM
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