Weekly Wrap-Up + Market Forecast + Sector Watch: SPX, Nasdaq, XLE, XRT, FDN, FAS

Markets started out on the weak side last week.  On Monday, stocks dropped lower.  Tuesday saw a brief morning pop, which was followed by heavy selling into the close.  SPX came down to test 1970.  In my Market Forecast last weekend, I said, 

"For the new week, both SPX and Nasdaq look vulnerable. SPX 2000-1970 is an important support."

On Wednesday, buyers started to come in.  After the Fed gave more confidence in the US economy, buyers decided to stick around.  Stocks rallied on through the rest of the week!

The Dow was up +523.97 points; SPX added +68.32 points: Nasdaq gained +111.78 points.  We had a nice week of trading, sending our portfolio to a new all-time high, up +122.22% for the year (which is actually just 5 months, since I started trading with Marketfy in August this year).  Here are the closed trades for the week:

STI Jan 17 2015 Call 40.0 $2.3 43.75% 12/19/2014
STI Jan 17 2015 Call 40.0 $2.33 45.62% 12/19/2014
VLO Jan 17 2015 Put 50.0 $2.83 -32.30% 12/19/2014
APA Jan 17 2015 Call 60.0 $4.25 28.79% 12/18/2014
TSLA Jan 17 2015 Call 215.0 $11.40 11.76% 12/18/2014
APA Jan 17 2015 Call 60.0 $4.17 26.36% 12/18/2014
TWTR Dec 26 2014 Put 36.0 $0.62 -58.67% 12/18/2014
GLD Dec 20 2014 Call 117.0 $0.40 -84.31% 12/17/2014
AMZN Dec 26 2014 Put 300.0 $8.80 9.32% 12/16/2014
APA Jan 17 2015 Call 57.5 $4.05 22.73% 12/16/2014
CMI Jan 17 2015 Put 140.0 $4.50 12.50% 12/16/2014
SNDK Dec 20 2014 Call 104.0 $0.20 -93.75% 12/15/2014
BIDU Jan 17 2015 Call 230.0 $8.28 -27.37% 12/15/2014
CMI Jan 17 2015 Put 140.0 $4.00 0.00% 12/15/2014
GOOG Dec 20 2014 Put 525.0 $11.00 10.00% 12/15/2014
JPM Dec 20 2014 Put 61.0 $1.32 24.53% 12/15/2014

Oil was range-bound and basically ended flat for the week closing just above $57/barrel.  Gold fell back to close just below $1200/ounce.  At the time of this writing, Asian markets were mostly up.  Here's how the US markets looked after Friday's close:


SPX added +9.42 points to close at 2070.65.  The daily MAs and MACD went higher.


Nasdaq gained +16.98 points to close at 4765.38.  Its daily MAs and MACD also went up.

Both SPX and Nasdaq closed above their respective daily MAs.  However, the MACDs have not yet turned bullish, although they have turned up.  We will have to see if SPX can break above 2080 to confirm a breakout.  For Nasdaq, there is resistance at 4800.  It seems to me that probably most major sectors will have to participate for the market to break out.

Sector Watch

XLE (energy)

XLE closed above its 20-day MA and the MACD has turned bullish.  Oil services bounced as well.  SLB, NOV, RIG, and DO were all strong last week.

XRT (retail)

XRT was never as weak as the rest of the market.  On Thursday, it seemed that the sector was going to break out.  But, it did not get a follow-through on Friday.  RL and AMZN were both relatively weak on Friday.  KORS, TGT, and ROST were all weak as well.  I think we should watch this sector and see if it can break out during the Christmas week.

FDN (internet)

FDN bounced strongly on Thursday.  FB and LNKD led the sector.  GOOG, TWTR, and PCLN were still weak.  YELP was drawing some buyers in.

FAS (financial)

FAS also bounced strongly on Wednesday and Thursday.  But, on Friday, things were not as strong.  I still like STI and PNC the best.  GS and WFC will need to see strong buying interest for FAS to push higher.

Good night and HappyTrading! ™

Posted to Ecstatic Plays on Dec 21, 2014 — 11:12 PM
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