420 Investor Weekly Review 11/25/22


The FDA warned five companies that are illegally selling food and beverage products with CBD. New York issued 36 adult-use retail licenses and will delay the current 10 medical operators from opening adult-use stores. Canadian sales of cannabis were higher than expected in September but flat with August at C$389.9 million, up 12.2% from a year ago.

I distributed this written material to 420 Investor subscribers during the week:

Here are some of this week's highlights for Focus List names:

  • AAWH opened its second medical cannabis dispensary in Pennsylvania. It also announced the departure of a director and the addition of two new ones.
  • CURLF opened two new Florida medical cannabis dispensaries.
  • GRWG opened its 60th store overall in Mount Holly, New Jersey.
  • OGI launched a new value brand, HOLY MOUNTAIN.
  • VFF unit Pure Sunfarms launched Nowadays, a collection of CBD products.

Please check the Focus List, (which has technical, fundamental and valuation ratings as well as a market-cap table). To help track market caps, we maintain tables for the Canadian LPs and the American cannabis operators and ancillary companies.

There were comments in over 90 discussions in the Forum. Don't miss out on this most informative part of 420 Investor! Not familiar with the the Forum? This video will help! This is a great way to track your favorite tickers, even those not on the Focus List, and to get your questions answered quickly.

Market Performance

The Global Cannabis Stock Index remained far above its all-time closing low of 11.26 from 9/30. It rose to 13.37 this Friday, ending unchanged during the week. This was a little worse than the 1.5% gain in the S&P 500, which is up 4.0% so far in November. The cannabis index has rallied 1.4% this month-to-date, behind the S&P 500, and it has rallied 18.7% thus far in Q4. This is more than the 12.3% return in the S&P 500.

The index, which lost 26% in 2021 following a 5.2% gain in 2020, is down 59.3% in 2022. It currently includes 28 stocks and ended 2021 at 32.85. In September it was down 25.9%, and it was down 23.7% in Q3:

For perspective, the index, which began 2013 at 100, bottomed in August 2013 at 70 after a prior peak of 220 in February 2013 and peaked in 2014 at 1010. The long post-2014 decline ended in February 2016, with the market soaring at the beginning of 2018 to levels not seen since 2014. We took out the 2016 lows by a wide margin in early 2020 and then soared into 2021 before reversing. We made a new all-time low at the end of September:

Model Portfolios

Flying High, down 16.1% in Q3, ended the week valued at $171,196, down 0.6% during the week. It has gained 0.2% in November and has gained 16.5% in Q4 thus far. This model portfolio was launched on 9/23/13 with $10,000 (paper), and it ended 2013 at $18,225, 2014 at $15,702, 2015 at $9608, 2016 at $49,568, 2017 at $112,891, 2018 at $161,346, 2019 at $165,249, 2020 at $252,409 and 2021 at $294,249. The year-to-date gain was 16.6% in 2021, and the model portfolio is down 41.8% in 2022. The model portfolio has increased 1612% since inception. Flying High has 7 positions and 0.2% cash. During the week, I added exited an ancillary name and added another one and added to an ancillary position.

420 Opportunity, which fell 15.2% in Q3, ended the week at $42,605, down 0.2%, which was slightly worse than the Global Cannabis Stock Index. It has lost 2.2% in November, a bit worse the index and is up 18.6% in Q4. This model portfolio, which was funded with $50,000 (paper) on 4/8/14 and ended 2014 at $17,105, 2015 at $11,418, 2016 at $44,915, 2017 at $91,407, 2018 at $94,616, 2019 at $77,715, 2020 at $105,373 and 2021 at $90,823, has a goal of being fully invested and outperforming the market as measured by the 420 Investor Cannabis Stock Index, which was flat during the week. In 2021, the model lost 13.8%, while the index decreased 26.0%, and it is down 53.1% in 2022 compared to the index loss of 59.3%. The model portfolio has lost 14.8% since inception, while the overall market has declined by 98% during that time-frame. The model maintains 14 holdings and 0.1% cash. The three largest holdings include MAPS (11.9%), AYRWF (10.6%) and TRSSF (10.0%). During the week, I exited CRON on Monday, adding to AAWH and a new position in CRLBF. On Tuesday, I reduced LOWLF and added to AAWH. On Wednesday, I reduced HYFM and added to AYRWF.

420 Quality, which was funded with $50,000 (paper) on 3/1/17 and was down 14.8% in Q3, ended the week at $59,183, down 0.4% this week and down 2.5% in November thus far. It has rallied 17.7% in Q4, a little behind the index. In 2021, the model portfolio lost 21.8% compared to the 26.0% loss in the index. In 2022, it has returned -53.2% compared to the index return of -59.3%. It ended 2017 at $109,480, 2018 at $119,053, 2019 at $113,123, 2020 at $161,504 and 2021 at $126,323. To learn more about the model portfolio, which is longer-term focused, please read the description I posted before launch. Since inception, the model has gained 18.4%, while the index has lost 83.5%. The model has 14 holdings and 0.2% cash. The largest positions include MAPS (11.3%), TRSSF (10.6%) and AYRWF (10.5%). During the week, I exited CRON on Monday, adding to AAWH and a new position in CRLBF. On Tuesday, I reduced LOWLF and added to AAWH. On Wednesday, I reduced HYFM and added to AYRWF.


As a reminder, 420i posts a calendar for your convenience, as does New Cannabis Ventures. NCV also posts a separate calendar for conference calls.

  • Tuesday, 11/29: Organigram reports its Q4 and hosts a call before the market opens, SLANG Worldwide reports its Q3 and hosts a call during trading hours and Cansortium and POSaBit host calls for their Q3s after the market closes. At 8:30 P.M. ET, I am hosting a live "Toking Tuesday" Chat at 420 Investor.
  • Wednesday, 11/30: Khiron and Simply Better Brands host Q3 calls during trading hours.

Companies with fiscal years ending in August (July for Canadian Venture stocks that don't file with the SEC) must report their annual financials in November. Companies with years ending in March, June or December must file their quarterly reports by mid-November (or by late November for Canadian-listed stocks that aren't on the TSX or NEO or filing with the SEC).

Posted to Your Cannabis Analyst on Nov 25, 2022 — 2:11 PM
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