Despite the recent "bounce," we continue to maintain a modestly defensive position (net long exposure currently stands at 89% and each of the strategies holds some cash) at this time. The reason is simple. Historically, when the market has incurred the degree of technical damage that has been inflicted since the beginning of October, bottoms tend to be a "process" as opposed to an "event." As such, we expect to see at least one retest of the lows, which would close the two big gaps on the S&P chart.
It is also worth noting that the S&P bumped its head on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level during Wednesday's blast higher. The key here is this level would make a convenient turning point for the bears to make a stand.
The bullish counterpoint is that we are now in the best seasonal period of the year and company buybacks are starting to kick back in. Thus, we would not be surprised to see decent action into January.
But until we can see model improvement and/or a "breadth surge" (which acts as an "all clear" signal for the next 12 months), we will remain a bit cautious.
Here is the current positioning of the portfolio and our member ratings:
Effective Net Market Exposure Explained
The Effective Net Market Exposure is the "net long" position of the overall model portfolio after factoring in the impact of leveraged long positions such as SSO and QLD and/or short positions. Leveraged ETFs such as SSO are designed to deliver approximately twice the daily return of the underlying index. Thus, a 10% holding in the SSO equates to a 20% "net long" position to the portfolio.
Current Rating Explained
This is our rating for the day. The Current Rating tells you what action we would take if we did not currently hold the position. A "Buy" rating means we would be willing to purchase the position at current prices. A "Strong Buy" suggests this would be our first choice to buy. A "Hold" rating indicates we would not make new purchases at current levels. And a "Sell" rating indicates we will likely exit the position in the near-term.
Positions Can Change
Positions often change during the trading session. Remember that we will send a Trade Alert via SMS Text Message and/or Email BEFORE we ever make a move in the models.
At the time of publication, the editors hold long positions in the following securities mentioned: SSO, XLV, AAPL, MSFT, TGT, ABT, BA, WM, V - Note that positions may change at any time.
About the Portfolio:
The latest upgrade to the Daily Decision service went live on Monday, July 9. The new, state-of-the-art portfolio employs a modern, hedge fund style approach incorporating multiple methodologies, multiple strategies, and multiple time-frames. The portfolio is comprised of three parts:
The Aggressive Risk-Managed Growth portion is made up of five trading strategies and accounts for 50% of the portfolio. The Market Leadership portion makes up 20% of the portfolio. And the Top Guns Stocks portion (10 of our favorite stocks) will make up the final 30% of the portfolio.
All three of our strategies are run in a single Marketfy model - the model is currently labeled as the LEADERS model. The goal is to make the service simpler to follow by putting everything in one place.
Wishing You All The Best in Your Investing Endeavors!
The Front Range Trading Team
NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. The analysis and information in this report and on our website is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report or on our websites is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the editors and may not actually come to pass. The opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security nor specific investment advice. Investors should always consult an investment professional before making any investment.