The Daily Decisions for 1.3.18


2017 Performance Update: Daily Decision LEADERS +23.91%
(vs. S&P 500 19.40%)


Today's Take...

While much of Wall Street is still enjoying the holiday season, there is a fair amount of action for market participants to digest today. First, I'd be remiss if I didn't acknowledge the way Ms. Market began the year. I believe the saying is, "As the first trading day of the year goes"... ah, you know the rest. Looking ahead to today, we have two more companies - American Airlines and Southwest Airlines providing $1000 bonuses to their employees in response to the new tax law. (Personally, I think this will be important input to consider in terms of wage inflation if it catches on.) Next, we've got the release of the minutes from the latest Fed meeting this afternoon. Lest we forget, Fed policy is uber-important to the bond market these days. And finally, there is the politicking going over keeping the government funded after January 19. The latest wrinkle has Mr. Trump demanding that any deal on spending must include funding for his border wall with Mexico. From my seat, this is the most important near-term issue to watch. But for now, the trend is definitely a friend to stock market investors.


Today's Model Review:

LEADERS Model: The LEADERS currently holds positions in the Technology, Industrials, Health Care, and Financial sectors.

We are continuing to look for an opportunity to increase diversification in the near-term. The idea is that when sector leadership changes rapidly, it is difficult to determine the difference between long-term, sustainable leadership and what I call "hedge fund follies" (aka a quick trade). So, in a rotational environment (where it is VERY easy to get whipsawed and beaten up), the plan is to diversify your holdings and wait for true leadership to emerge.

Note that we will be reducing each of the current holdings to 16.67% of the portfolio in order to make room for the new positions. As such, we will be cutting approximately one-third of the current positions.

CORE Model (Risk Managed Exposure): Today's CORE model's exposure is below the current target at 90% vs. 120%. As a reminder, the goal of this model is to stay in tune with the overall risk/reward environment. Therefore, we make adjustments only when there is a meaningful and sustained divergence between the target model reading and our current positions.

TRADING Model: We currently hold trades in the Russell 2000, India Small Caps, Eurozone, a dividend-payer ETF, and the emerging markets.

Look for a trade coming here soon as well as we will be striving to upgrade the FVD position.

Below are the current holdings of each model portfolio:


Daily Decision Trading Service
Current Portfolio Summary
The LEADERS Model

Position
ETF
Symbol
% of
Model
Date
Purchased
Purchase
Price
Current
Rating
Technology Select Sector SPDR XLK 25% 12.1.16 $46.64 Buy
Industrial Select Sector SPDR XLI 25% 8.14.17 $68.58 Hold
Health Care Select Sector SPDR XLV 25% 11.27.17 $81.79 Buy
Financial Select Sector SPDR XLF 25% 12.12.17 $28.19 Buy
The CORE EXPOSURE Model

Position
ETF
Symbol
% of
Model
Date
Purchased
Purchase
Price
Current
Rating
ProShares UltraPro S&P (3X) UPRO 30.00%
(Equiv 90% Long)
Various $98.78 Buy
The TRADING Model

Position
ETF
Symbol
% of
Model
Date
Purchased
Purchase
Price
Current
Rating
iShares Eurozone ETF EZU 20% 5.11.17 $40.25 Buy
First Trust Value Line Dividend Fund FVD 20% 5.11.17 $28.88 Hold
iShares Emerging Markets ETF EEM 20% 6.112.17 $41.57 Buy
VanEck Vectors India Small-Cap Index ETF SCIF 20% 7.18.17 $58.00 Hold
iShares Russell 2000 ETF IWM 20% 10.19.17 $146.09 Buy





% of Model Explained


The number shown in this column represents the percentage of the the model this position represents.



Current Rating Explained


This is our rating for the day. The Current Rating tells you what action we would take if we did not currently hold the position. A "Buy" rating means we would be willing to purchase the position at current prices. A "Strong Buy" suggests this would be our first choice to buy. A "Hold" rating indicates we would not make new purchases at current levels. And a "Sell" rating indicates we will likely exit the position in the near-term.



Positions Can Change


Positions often change during the trading session. Remember that we will send a Trade Alert via SMS Text Message and/or Email BEFORE we ever make a move in the models.


About the Daily Decision Models:
The Daily Decision is designed to be a simple, easy-to-follow e-letter service showcasing 3 different model portfolios. The LEADERS model is the flagship, growth oriented strategy that focuses on "where the action is" in terms of market leadership. The CORE model is a longer-term, risk-managed approach to keeping exposure to market risk in line with prevailing conditions. And as the name implies, the TRADING model is intended to be a tactical, opportunistic trading strategy.



Wishing You All The Best in Your Investing Endeavors!



The Front Range Trading Team



Daily Decision Links:
Daily Decision Resource Page
Interactive Performance Details


NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. The analysis and information in this report and on our website is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report or on our websites is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the editors and may not actually come to pass. The opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security nor specific investment advice. Investors should always consult an investment professional before making any investment.

Posted to Daily Decision Trading Se... on Jan 03, 2018 — 9:01 AM
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