Weekly Wrap-Up + Market Forecast + Sector Watch: SPX, Nasdaq, XRT, XLE, FAS, FDN

Markets took a tumble last week.  Things were again volatile.  Although big tech companies such as AAPL, GOOG, and AMZN delivered solid earnings, they were not able to offset the overall weakness.

We had positions on both sides going into the week.  Besides the TRIP puts, which we probably exited early, most of the closed trades worked out pretty well (I am now including the entering prices and dates in weekly reports):

VXX Feb 20 2015 Call 31.0 $2.52 $5.325 $1,402.50 111.31% 01/23/2015 01/29/2015
VXX Feb 20 2015 Call 31.0 $2.52 $4.75 $1,115.00 88.49% 01/23/2015 01/29/2015
TRIP Feb 20 2015 Put 68.0 $3.325 $2.975 $-350.00 -10.53% 01/27/2015 01/28/2015
TRIP Feb 20 2015 Put 68.0 $3.325 $2.825 $-500.00 -15.04% 01/27/2015 01/28/2015
AAPL Feb 20 2015 Call 110.0 $6.30 $7.85 $775.00 24.60% 01/13/2015 01/28/2015
AAPL Feb 20 2015 Call 110.0 $6.30 $7.45 $575.00 18.25% 01/13/2015 01/28/2015
CMI Feb 20 2015 Put 143.0 $4.35 $5.55 $1,200.00 27.59% 01/27/2015 01/27/2015
GPRO Jan 30 2015 Call 48.0 $4.20 $3.50 $-700.00 -16.67% 01/23/2015 01/27/2015

For the week, the Dow was down 507.65 points; SPX fell 56.83 points; Nasdaq lost 122.64 points.  Gold was basically flat, closing at around $1280/ounce.  Oil bounced and was trading above $48/barrel after Friday's close.  At the time of this writing, Asian markets were mostly lower.  Let's take a look at the US markets:

SPX

On Friday, SPX fell 26.26 points to close at 1994.99.  Its daily MAs and MACD slid.

Nasdaq

Nasdaq fell 48.17 points to close at 4635.24.  Its daily MAs were mixed.  The MACD was lower.

Both SPX and Nasdaq closed below their daily MAs, although the MAs were crisscrossed.  For the new week, the market is in a very precarious position.  Friday afternoon's sell-off was quite strong, pushing the SPX to close below 2000.   This increased the chance of further downturn.  

Earnings are still coming in:

MON:  (AM) XOM; (PM) APC, CLF
TUE:  (AM) ARG, BP, UPS; (PM) CMG, CVD, GILD, TTWO
WED:  (AM) AGN, CLX, MPC, WHR; (PM) ALL, GMCR, NE, SFLY, DATA, YUM, UA

THUR: (AM) AMAG, CMI, ICPT, ICE, KORS, NU, PRGO, TDC, VMC, USG;
           (PM) BWLD, EXPE, GPRO, LNKD, NWS, OUTR, TWTR, YELP
FRI: (AM) CBOE

There is support for SPX between 1990 and 1980.  Below that, the next support lies within 1950 and 1940.  On the up side, 2020 could now turn into a resistance.  Nasdaq is looking healthier, thanks to AAPL, GOOG, and AMZN.  It is neutral right now and has support at about 4570 and resistance at 4700.

Sector Watch

XRT (retail)

XRT fell sharply on Friday and closed below its daily MAs.  RL has been very weak.  Even TGT fell on Friday.  DECK was probably the culprit, as it missed its earnings estimates badly.  UA is reporting on Wednesday afternoon, followed by KORS on Thursday morning.

FAS (financial)

FAS took a big drop last week.  It managed to close above its support at $105.  If $105 breaks, the next support is $100.  WFC is the strongest among the big banks.  MA and V reported strong earnings, but, got held back by the overall market.  Regional banks such as PNC and STI held their grounds on Friday.

FDN (internet)

FDN is still strong.  We have EXPE, LNKD, TWTR, and YELP all reporting on Thursday after the market.

XLE (energy)

While the broader market fell on Friday, XLE bounced as oil bounced.  OXY as particularly strong.  APA also found buyers.  XOM is reporting Monday morning, followed by APC in the afternoon.  Then, BP reports on Tuesday morning.

Good night and HappyTrading! ™

Posted to Ecstatic Plays on Feb 02, 2015 — 1:02 AM
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